From James Oaksun at Liberty for Maine:

Today, Liberty For Maine released a proprietary study and report regarding marriage equality votes in California, Maine and Washington state.

Town-level vote totals in Maine, and county-level results in California and Washington, were merged with 21 demographic variables to assess whether there was a consistent explanation for the results in the three states.  The study found, in all three states, higher levels of wealth and education were strong predictors of support for the equality position.

In addition, a predictive model was constructed to calculate the probability of marriage equality being passed in all states within the next 5-10 years.  The model predicts that Hawaii, Colorado, New Jersey, Maryland and Alaska are the states most likely to pass marriage equality next.  California ranked tenth, and New York fifteenth.  Maine – where marriage equality lost at the polls last month – ranked twenty-fourth.

The study and analysis was conducted by James Oaksun, chair of Liberty For Maine and president of Virtual Galt Corporation.  Oaksun stated that, “Marriage equality is getting strong support from educational and economic elites, across multiple states.  The problem is getting the next tier of support.  Until the issue gains more traction with middle class voters, marriage equality will face tough sledding in the political process.”

In the report, Oaksun also offers five reasons why marriage equality lost in Maine, and suggests a strategy for the marriage equality movement going forward.

The report is available in .pdf form.